Safemoon bullish case and bearish case, crypto analysis
This project is entirely dependant on volume. Price doesn’t matter because the reflections will still be the same value. Let’s say you sell $100 worth of safemoon at 0.1. $5 from that gets distributed as reflections, assuming the burn has stopped at that point. Now let’s say you sell $100 again, however this time at 0.01. It would cost you 10x more safemoon to sell a $100 worth which means that the reflections would still be exactly the same – $5.
Even if a single African country used Safemoon on a daily basis it would be a great increase to the volume. Now, granted it probably wouldn’t be billions of dollars but if the American market picks up Safemoon again and makes the early adopter Africans some good money then we can expect a crazy amount of volume from our African friends – which again, will help reflections tremendously and thus will benefit everyone.
When cryptonomics will be integrated into the exchange for most (if not every) crypto then it will be the ultimate volume boost. The exchange would force people to make their investments in Safemoon first, as it would be the main currency of the exchange. You would have to buy Safemoon first and then swap it for any Safemoon/crypto pair to earn reflections from that crypto. That crypto could be bitcoin, ethereum, anything really. I don’t even have to explain as to why this would be insane for the volume.
Furthermore, if, for example, a large amount of BTC holders would earn reflections by holding then that would stabilise the market and reduce volatility – which is one of the main reasons why people aren’t adding crypto to their 401k’s or investments. The exchange has the ability to solve (or at least mitigate) one of the biggest problems with crypto: volatility.
Leaving BSC will allow the developers to branch out into other, more complex projects that wouldn’t be possible on BSC. For example with IoT, the users of Safemoon wouldn’t be humans only but machines too. Imagine if every machine could communicate with each other at a ludicrous speed on the Safemoon blockchain. The possibilities are literally endless with a blockchain.
The bearish side:
1. Right now the top holders are filthy rich. I fear that the Safemoon wallet (perhaps the exchange too) is already priced in. Meaning that when we actually see the release the price will still keep going down temporarily.
2. Reflections are broken right now. This is a limitation of BSC and so as of right now, BitMart holders for example earn a different amount than Trust wallet holders. This will be fixed with the new wallet and blockchain.
3. The market is bearish right now and inflation concerns are sky high. Inflation is good for crypto but not in the short term as it usually leads to higher interest on loans. This slow bleed could continue for months and thus it could kill any short term price increase that would come from the blockchain, exchange, wallet.
4. The problem with new investors is that they are beginners. They will complain when the price goes down because they don’t know anything about the market. The issue comes when these people get fed up and sell because of ignorance. Instead of structured arguments they will just spread FUD about Safemoon which can hurt the community. Granted, these new investors usually don’t matter for the price as they will likely hold a much smaller amount than the average person due to fear and because they’re new.
In conclusion this whole project and the future of it is in the hands of the devs. If everything goes smoothly then it is a no-brainer. I personally believe that the Safemoon team is made up of extremely smart and talented people and if there is anyone who can complete this project it’s them. Having said that, do your own research and decide yourself whether or not this is something you are willing to invest into.