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Hop on Twitter’s Rip-off of Onlyfans

Twitter just officially announced [Super Follows](https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/1/22651138/twitter-super-follow-launch-subscription-ios), a feature that allows users to set a monthly subscription price followers can pay to see exclusive tweets. This is pretty transparently an imitation of Onlyfans’ business model, except Twitter doesn’t have to worry about 1) building out user bases of creators and customers and 2) developing the infrastructure to legally host adult content (a big reason why Onlyfans briefly intended to pivot away from porn).

Onlyfans’ valuation is likely [well over $1 billion](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/17/onlyfans-promotes-its-sfw-app-as-it-seeks-funding-at-a-1b-valuation/) and is expected to grow to $2.2 billion in 2022 and $12.5 billion in 2023 [according to a leaked internal pitch deck](https://www.axios.com/onlyfans-investors-struggle-9cc92523-6607-40ad-9893-4175e7966b52.html). Given $400 million in operating revenue in 2020, those projections seem feasible. Regardless, Super Follows is perfectly positioned to sap a substantial portion of that revenue. That’s billions in future earnings that aren’t yet fully priced in to their current $52 billion market cap, which is based off of ~$4 billion in revenue for 2021.

Currently, Twitter won’t be earning the 20% fee Onlyfans charges, but this structure is likely to change following an introductory period (even moreso if Apple’s in-app purchases fee is lowered either through negotiation or court order). Twitter is covered up with camgirls, and it has wisely chosen to capitalize on this userbase without alienating its core audience. This isn’t a moonshot, but betting on a bump in their share price as this circulates through the news cycle should make for a quick payoff. 🚀🚀🚀

What do you think?

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11 Comments

  1. Facebook and Google have shown poor performance when trying to copy successful social media models. Twitter killed Vine early because they couldn’t succeed like tik tok later did. If Twitter shows signs on being able to pull this off, they won’t be stopped and I’m loading up on TWTR.

  2. >except Twitter doesn’t have to worry about 1) building out user bases of
    creators and customers and 2) developing the infrastructure to legally
    host adult content (a big reason why Onlyfans briefly intended to pivot
    away from porn).

    Maybe a stupid question (I know I’ll fit right in) but if Twitter isn’t hosting it, how do you prevent a super follower from sharing the link, or someone from just finding it? I feel like there is no way for people to protect their content in this scenario, so putting it out via Twitter seems like a really bad play.

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