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Markets ain’t going to crash, here’s why.

To put it simply, Markets crash because of unpredictable events(IMO).

2008 – the housing bubble burst
2020 – pandemic and uncertainty of future (people sold because it was getting out of hand, unemployment etc)
2021- inflation and another housing crisis (foreseen)

We had a correction a while ago, and while I don’t think stocks will continue to go up like it did in 2020 and earlier this year, everything has been foreseen, and people have made investments in/out of stocks in reaction to this. This includes the interest rates, inflation, stimmy money, etc.

Everybody wants there to be a crash because it’s logical, the markets are going up like crazy it needs to go down now right? I even remember the amount of people here during April May and June that YOLO’d on puts showing graphs and data and what not.

If markets crash we would just put our money on the dips. The thing is, we always assume it’s gonna come, it ain’t gonna happen when we think it is. It’s gonna happen when we least expect it.

My guess is It will likely happen a few years down the road, when a shift in economic power happens.

TLDR: STONKs only go up

What do you think?

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46 Comments

  1. At it’s core, is your argument that previous crashes were because of unseen factors, but since we don’t see any unseen factors right now there can’t be a crash?

    Aside from that Catch-22, I’d disagree that there weren’t signs. Crashes all have signs, but not all signs have crashes. There’s no shortage of bears who were calling the dotcom bubble and housing bubbles before the crashes

    It’s questionable at best whether the current risks are priced accordingly. Inflation alone is higher than the fed predicted or claims, and with hourly wages rising fast and STILL a shit participation rate there’s only signs of inflation increasing and not being temporary. On top of that you’ve got stocks trading higher that pre pandemic levels despite still not being at 100%, and supply chain issues.

  2. Markets don’t crash because of unpredictable events.

    1920’s – bad loans and a farmland boom resulted in overleveraging in the banking sector and eventually loans went bad and there was a run on the banks and a flow on effect (super simplified version of events)

    2000 – new technology without an accurate way to price the technology lead to speculation and a blow off top (it was clear for months prior that the market was frothy)

    2008 – shady loans issued by banks and off balance sheet derivatives coupled with government programs to expand loan eligibility (by the gov guaranteeing the loans in question) lead to a crash

    Crashes are only a surprise to people who don’t pay attention, YES it is true that you can’t know what day it will happen, but if the market dropped 10% tomorrow nobody should be surprised.

    You need to be ok with a market crash at any point now, if not, then you will be caught naked when the tide goes out.

  3. > Markets ain’t going to crash, here’s why.

    then you say this

    > Markets crash because of unpredictable events(IMO).

    You should put a dictionary open to cognitive dissonance in your bathroom. You can use it as a mirror.

  4. Crash is only bad for over leveraged people who don’t understand risk and won’t survive to trade another week. Volatility events open up a lot of buying and selling opportunities which make picking stocks somewhat easier. I enjoy a good period of volatility. Regardless, anyone worried about a crash shouldn’t be here, this sub is for pump and dumps where the last retard holding the bag makes other people money.

    Oh right, sir this is a casino.

  5. The markets react so fast now that I agree. Crashes in certain sectors will happen though, like we saw with high growth and tech earlier this year. I think since the rona crash, people have learned to buy the dip with the quickness which helps keep the broad market propped up. The next craah will almost certainly come from something unforeseen and ridiculously stupid, but it will eventually come. Its funny to watch people continually buy puts and ride them straight into the ground lol. You would think they would figure out a better strat 12 years deep into a bull run….

  6. I think we are just following the Japanese model of inflating any problems out. Crashes will just be cashed out off of the printing presses. The benefit of such a system is that yesterday’s debts and cash loose value quicker than the options I buy but assets gain. It’s great for the working class because you can never save enough to retire and therefore get to keep working for the gods, forever.

  7. While I don’t disagree with a lot of what you are saying about unpredictable events causing crashes there can also be signs that trouble is ahead.

    Somethings that I think are potential issues. Housing prices are way to hot… I mean stupidly hot. Then you have signs of real inflation. Now it may just be transitory but it could also be here to stay for a while especially with the sick amount of money the fed and government are dumping into the economy. The labor market also has issues. These are all potential signs Something is wrong. 128% debt to gdp is also not a healthy debt load. The government is counting on growth and inflation to get that down but let’s be realistic… the amount of both of those you would need is unsustainable.

    This market right now just doesn’t have the happy times feels to it. Now I am not saying doom and gloom the end is neig. Just that we should look at or portfolios and have a plan for when shit goes tits up.

    A crash can be a great buying opportunity of you have positioned yourself correctly. I mean you could have come out of 2020 better of than when you entered 2020.

  8. I believe indexes will continue to appreciate for the remainder of 2021. However, not as aggressively as the first half of the year.

    Correction will come in 2022/2023.

    There can be a 12 month delay from when a bubble is recognized and when it actually corrects.

  9. I have a counter argument. They won’t crash for one simple reason. The market is being completely manipulated and they simply don’t want it to crash because people would lose confidence in our entire economy and everything would go to shit. It’s a national security risk. Therefore they won’t let it.

  10. We can have a strong correction without a black swan event. Just make inflation not as transitory as the FED expected and we’re good to shave 10% easy from SPY. An unexpected event like the last flu would send us back to spy lows 300 or even lower.

  11. Tech stocks (AMZN, FB, TWTR) face anti-trust litigation from congress. If the Zon is broken up, that could trigger a larger sell off among super tech giants and other market places like Walmart and Kroger. It would be a win for small to medium size market sellers and hurt the market makers

    EVs will trade sideways until real production starts. Winners will soar and losers will tank.

    Oil is largely captive to whether or not President Harris does more to regulate them out of profitability

    The Space Sector will be the hot SPAC/IPO market as the undefined market makes waves (SPCE TO THE MOON🚀🚀🚀)

    Consumer staples will trade sideways with dividends driving stock prices

  12. It is going to happen when we least suspect it, for sure.
    Bill Hwang was sitting pretty with 20B, then VIAC did a share offering and 20B went up in flames.
    We never truly know what will break the market until after it is breaking.

    Have some cash on hand, never know when a winning position comes available to tilt the odds of making money in your favor

  13. I don’t know man. I really think that until we get rent forgiveness and student loan cancellation we’re going to have a looming threat of a market collapse. Once that moratorium on evictions ends were going to have housing market crash and once people have to start paying back their student loans again we’re going to see a drastic decrease in consumer spending.

    The government can extend those dates and kick the can down the road a few months, maybe a year or two. But if the government doesn’t step in with actual forgiveness, this market will just keep living on borrowed time.

  14. Economics is the hardest thing to understand.

    Ben Bernanke’s field of expertise is The Great Depression; we still went into a recession

    Life is short, put your savings on $CLF

  15. the stock market isn’t the only market. The data indicates economic stress even if everything is reaching ATHs. We just need a catalyst whether it be the housing market or stock market. Not financial advice but GME AMC and every other stock that has had excessive manipulation will show their true colors. Read the house of cards, we are just waiting for one card to give.

  16. Fear mongering crashes markets, we have the numbers to prevent a crash if we want to! Even if a correction occurs buy the dip! It will recover! Always does!

  17. We all know in order to keep America in first in this economic arms race against China is to create wealth out of nothing. We’re good at that. Pump and artificially growth scheme of massive scale and the stock market growth doesn’t truly reflect the state of economy which we have with job supply excess and gluttony and employers aren’t budging to raise wage and still continue to outsource work and underpay fresh new immigrants who come with hope. They still sell the BS American Dream and the new immigrant is happy at first to learn that they’re getting paid twice as much as back home but come to quick realization that cost of living is also relative and twice as much more expensive all while being expected to work twice as hard and be productive. Brutal. Chinese shanghai index reflects truer picture of the organic and robust Chinese economic growth but since US’ attempt to vilify China by planting covid strategically beside the lab during the international military game that took place in Wuhan earlier and now they’re resorting to this. Just keep on pumping stock market create wealth out of nothing to get richer while the state of economy continues to diverge. This is the only reason why I’m bullish on US stock market is not because of its fundamentals and optimism but because this is the only way to beat China on economic basis by propping up the stock market. This is the only reason why I’m bullish for the next few years.

  18. Typically bubbles burst in a capitalist system when one person has all the money and nobody can give him anymore. This was the Great Depression, usually a government will redistribute the money to avoid this, currently the wealth seems to be concentrating in a few people, so why not another Great Depression?

  19. ​

    2 Reasons:

    1) 2 trillion of investment capital going into US infrastructure.

    2) The juggernaut of US retail is almost 50% vaccinated. Watch out India/China, our economy will be back and booming while they are still cleaning the drool off their chins.

  20. “When my shoeshine buy gives stock advice, it’s time to sell”

    OK, but by that same logic, “when Redditors who are know it alls scream there will be a crash, it’s time to buy”

    I think there are strong fundamentals. But there are potential pitfalls. There are still many very reasonably valued companies out there.

    And in the housing crash of 08 – we saw a rapid stock market rally after. And it all houses were decimated. Just the shitty ones.

    Market capitulations always do one thing: shake
    Out then deadwood and weak players and allow the strong to retrench.

    Be smart and be strong folks. Don’t plow into the speculative crap that everyone is peddling right now if you are worried about a market corrections.

    Buy solid companies and sleep well at night.

  21. That was then though. This is now. Completely different economic situation. Although I agree with your outlook, You don’t really have much to support your conclusion.
    ‘A few years down the road’, IMO can’t be used to come back ‘a few years down the road’ to say ” see, I told you so!”.

    Also, people are using the term crash for any kind of loss. If the market crashes everyone is in trouble.

    **- $0.27**

    *”…underlying crashed today…”*

Daily General Discussion – July 15, 2021

To everyone who is losing hope