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$PBF – go refinery – Pt. 2

SUP SMARTS. Second post here.

Just wanna add couple things to my [previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/p141s1/pbf_time_to_buy_refinery_key_facts/).

– EIA reported their [short term forecast](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf) for August 2021 (don’t be lazy and have a look). The most interesting part is about gasoline prices forecast:

>The front-month futures price of RBOB (the petroleum component of gasoline used in many parts of the country) settled at $2.29 per gallon (gal) on August 5, up 3 cents/gal from July 1. The RBOB–Brent crack spread (the difference between the price of RBOB and the price of Brent crude oil) increased by 13 cents/gal to settle at 60 cents/gal during the same period. The crack spread on July 30 of 55 cents/gal was the highest July crack spread since July 31, 2015. July’s high RBOB–Brent crack spread reflected increasing demand and decreasing inventories. We estimate U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, which is 0.9 million b/d (11%) higher than in July 2020, and only 0.2 million b/d (2%) lower than the pre-COVID-19 July 2019 level. The increase in gasoline demand likely reflects typical seasonal factors such as increased summer driving demand, especially around the July 4th holiday weekend. For the week ending July 2, we reported in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report that gasoline product supplied was 10.0 million b/d, a record high in our data, which goes back to 1991. Product supplied is the volume of petroleum products delivered out of the primary supply chain, rather than the actual amount of gasoline consumed by end users that week. An individual week’s amount of product supplied could be affected by a number of factors, such as the timing of when import or export cargoes clear customs. Nevertheless, this record product supplied level likely indicates that driving demand was high in late June and early July. Although gasoline consumption remains below 2019 levels, the July 2021 estimate is the closest gasoline consumption has been to its corresponding 2019 level so far in 2021. The relatively high consumption has contributed to gasoline stocks decreasing to 228.5 million barrels in July, the lowest July level since 2015. We forecast lower gasoline stocks between August and November, which will likely continue to support relatively high crack spreads.

– US/Canada border was [opened](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/niagara-border-tourists-1.6135739) for vaccinated US citizens since Mon, 9. As you see there are crowds of people entering Canada – so, slowly life is back to normal. Hopefully for vaccinated Canadians the border will be opened since Aug, 21. And you better know how Canadians are in love with cheap US gas.

[US Canada border](https://preview.redd.it/p41q3o9wfsg71.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c1802568ce85e76bd77a05bc0ba7f2727cb7bb4d)

– For TA’s fans you can have a look to 1H candle and say that the stock definitely ready to explode.

[$PBF H1](https://preview.redd.it/slmn6twyfsg71.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=20cfdec45efcdb48a730a2e53381bd0d3c5cc27c)

I’m sure that $PBF already bottomed and it’s time to open the position for 10-15% of the funds. It may bottomed to $8.9-9 1-2 times again, but starting next week it would go to $12-14.

P.S. Of course you can choose a safe side and buy Exxon or Valero shares – because obviously they have much better fundamentals and you take your 10-20% profit. But I bet you’re here for at least x2 profit.

What do you think?

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