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Scaling EV Market Oppurtunity

Cathie was onto something

**The Market Opportunity**

Contrary to what many boomers say, electric vehicles are not a “trend” or a “fad”. It’s very reasonable to expect electric vehicles to account for an overwhelming majority of automotive sales by 2050, because of the Paris Agreement. Nearly every single nation in the world is a member of the Paris Agreement. The goal of it is to limit temperature increase to 1.5˚ C, and encourages countries to attempt to go carbon neutral by the year 2050.

https://preview.redd.it/1fkm26xwt6f71.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=deed313af8cdcb82ef63b328506cb1bb4abdeb61

Obviously one of the most significant contributors to carbon emissions are current gas powered cars. This is where electric vehicles come in.

The largest EV markets as of now are:

https://preview.redd.it/krmqo53vt6f71.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=01a4c8b1039a80ab4ec44a65e2ad42d354ee8b48

Just note that Europe as a whole, sells more EV’s than China.

In the short term, the best market will be Europe let me explain why.

**Europe’s Market Opportunity**

Europe is one of the most progressive places in the entire world, and they are taking climate change and the Paris agreement incredibly seriously. For example the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, and the Netherlands are planning to ban **ALL** ICE(Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles by 2030, and Norway is going to ban them by 2025. Germany as of now, is granting 11k to people who plan on purchasing EV’s, and many other countries in Europe offer significant financial incentives. For example, France just announced an 8.8 billion dollar package, which offers 12k euros(13.5k dollars) to people purchasing EV’s.

Europe has also passed new emissions standards which states that, “no more than 95g of carbon dioxide/km for passenger cars by 2021.”

In 2019, overall sales increased by **137% IN EUROPE**. **IN MARCH 2021, EV SALES INCREASED BY 169%**. Also in Norway, currently **18.1%** of vehicles **IN USE are PEV’s(Plug in Electric Vehicles).** Iceland is 5.5% and Sweden is 3.7% in 2020. Which is amazing. Many estimates by analysts say that by 2030 around 30% of all automotive sales will be Electric Vehicles. Personally I think this is incredibly conservative, seeing how serious many European Countries are, I will not be surprised if it reaches %40. The two most important countries will likely be France and Germany. Both countries have already passed multi billion dollar packages as incentives to purchase EV’s, and I think these trends will continue.

**INSANE STATISTIC**

**3 OUT OF 4 SALES IN NORWAY IS AN EV. AND HALF OF ALL SALES IN ICELAND. AND 1 OUT OF 3 SALES IN SWEDEN. IN MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 1 OUT OF 10 SALES ARE ELECTRIC VEHICLES.**

https://preview.redd.it/0c9vuuwzt6f71.png?width=404&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e0fbad8e8d148e8062fde904c7d93efa824e198

Yearly EV growth rate in Europe:

Bull estimate: 100% growth in EV sales

INCREDIBLY Very Bull Estimate: 150% growth in EV sales

My estimate: 100% growth in EV sales

Bear estimate 40% growth in EV sales

Note: even the bear estimate is incredibly large

**China’s Market Opportunity**

As of writing, out of any individual nation, China has the largest electric vehicle market in the world. Though China isn’t as progressive as Europe, their EV market will also have huge growth. Call it good or bad, China’s government has complete authority of the economy. We’ve already seen it before, but with the snap of a finger China can put any law they want into existence. Thankfully for the EV market, China has made many laws pushing the use of EV’s.

For example, many cities have mandated that many ride hailing cars must be electric vehicles, and the government specifies a certain amount of new license plates go to EV’s.

Estimates show that by 2030, the EV sales will increase by 25% **EACH YEAR.** Bear estimate will be around 20%. China has been incredibly consistent with its growth. Very bull estimate will be 30%. I predict 25% growth in China.

**US Market Opportunity**

Arguably by far the least impressive. The government has done little to promote EV’s especially compared to other countries like Europe and China. The current president Joe Biden is very interested in EV’s and is attempting to pass many bills promoting their use. But I wouldn’t count on anything particular being passed. US EV growth was 17%, but over the past few years growth has slowed a lot.

**FINAL ESTIMATE FOR EV SALES END OF 2021 and 2022**

Using current sales figures and estimates for each individual country and the rest of the world here are my figures for yearly growth in total

My estimate 2021 growth and total: 40%

My estimate 2022 growth and total: 60%

Point is massive opportunity

**TLDR PLAYS**

I highly advise reading the entire thing but

TSLA or NIO shares

TSLA and NIO LONG TERM calls

What do you think?

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12 Comments

  1. I cant believe we have to keep revisiting this point. You are 100% correct.

    Imagine being the horse and buggy guy when Henry Ford comes to town. That’s how those idiot boomers sound. It’s as simple as that.

    If energy production (highest polluter), manufacturing (second highest), and transportation (third highest) don’t **ALL** reduce emissions **FAST** your money is fucking worthless anyway. If this damage isn’t mitigated you don’t have a future. Just send it.

  2. I think commercial electric vehicles is a much better play, for example Arrival ($ARVL) or Workhorse ($WKHS – is my primary bet in this space due to high short interest), because while individuals still have decades to make a switch, big companies are often forced (either by public image and other pressures or literally by green legislations) to make this switch now. My wife buys commercial vehicles for one of the biggest airports in the world as a job and they are forced to pay premium for electric vehicle fleet now, not in 20 years (including even such specialised vehicles like fire engines). So commercial electric is the way to go. ⚡🚚 🚐🚜🚒🚛⚡

  3. This all sounds great except for the fact the EV stocks have been slaughtered for the past four weeks and today are getting completely annihilated 3,4,5, 8% down across the board. ARVL, RIDE, FSR, PTRA, LEV, KNDI, FFIE beating to smithereens. Even the ancillaries QS, EVGO yada yada all down. Big money is trying to wipe us out of our position so they can take them over at pennies on the dollar as usual. With any luck when it turns around tomorrow the next day or Friday, Apes will come charging back and trample big money, big oil and shorty.

  4. To OP, I don’t think anyone doubts the future of EV’s. However, in term of investing, people have been buying into EV stocks for years and at some point, valuation will come into play.

    To keep it short, you have to choose the ones that will win. My guess is that many of the recent EV SPAC’s won’t be around in a few years. TSLA is obviously a leader, but it is very expensive and more so if you factored out the emission credits it sold every quarter. It is a cult stock and valuation doesn’t really matter at this point, but it may eventually become a factor. And when it does, it’d better make a lot more profits to justify the stock valuation.

    I’d stay away from any Chinese stocks with all the political uncertainties at this point.

    Good luck.

  5. The EV money isn’t in cars. It’s in resources.

    Copper and silver miners – cannot make an EV without them and will be facing massive shortages from under investment.

    Uranium miners – Something has to charge those batteries. Wind and solar alone can’t come close to the power we need. If you disagree with the uranium miner angle you should be buying oil plays. One has to be right.

fresh poo just stealth launched, only at 25k MC kippers last project did 1.5m

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