Q2 Earnings are scheduled to be released on the 12th call shortly after. I wanted to see how people are feeling about the results. So my question for everyone is:
What is your prediction for earnings and do you consider it to be bullish, bearish or neutral?
I’ll go first. I’m bullish I think their revenue (9.89 million for Q1) will be very favorable in the $15 to $20 million area. I also expect the company to expect that number to further increase in Q3 and Q4 with revenue increases to the $22-$27 (Q3) and $27-$32 million ballpark in those quarters. I’m further expecting positive EBITDA. I’m expecting cash on hand at about $167 million and finally I’m not too sure how they will report it but a cash drawdown of about $550-$650 million. They also still have a negative $129 million in warrants that will be declared.
They did gain 100 retail locations to nab highest market share in Canada and further vertically integrate, reducing costs.
I expect operational costs per $ revenue to improve and a slight reduction in $ per gram sold at market (due to tighter market conditions in Canada). I doubt much will be said about expanding into the US if federal legislation occurs with the narrative being to improve and streamline their Canadian work and then purse a slow and calculated but strong entry into the US market (but only after federal legalization, which could be 2 years away).
I’m optimistic that we will get more information on their lending business and depending on how much money is deployed that work could produce another $5-10 million a quarter in revenue.
Finally I expect them to elaborate on the benefits and synergies of the inner spirit acquisition. The will be optimistic but largely on a subjective rather than objective level.
This will probably be reported as a significant net loss in large part due to investments in growth opportunities (vertical integration and diversification, which is kind of odd to see together because they appear contradictory, however I see it working in this case). The result is large and significant net loss with all the indicators pointing at growth and a bright long term future.
The net loss will probably be enough to send it red which is a great buying opportunity for the share price reversal that will happen at the much rosier looking Q3 & Q4 reports and calls. Target a Q1 2022 market cap of 2 to 2.2 billion.
Also, they might hint at a reverse split to stay listed (but I doubt this will come up).
Ok that’s my uneducated layman’s prediction. If you trade based on this you are a truly retarded ape.
Let’s hear your thoughts I’d love to understand other sentiment around this one.