SNDL Q2 Earnings Predictions

Q2 Earnings are scheduled to be released on the 12th call shortly after. I wanted to see how people are feeling about the results. So my question for everyone is:

What is your prediction for earnings and do you consider it to be bullish, bearish or neutral?

I’ll go first. I’m bullish I think their revenue (9.89 million for Q1) will be very favorable in the $15 to $20 million area. I also expect the company to expect that number to further increase in Q3 and Q4 with revenue increases to the $22-$27 (Q3) and $27-$32 million ballpark in those quarters. I’m further expecting positive EBITDA. I’m expecting cash on hand at about $167 million and finally I’m not too sure how they will report it but a cash drawdown of about $550-$650 million. They also still have a negative $129 million in warrants that will be declared.

They did gain 100 retail locations to nab highest market share in Canada and further vertically integrate, reducing costs.

I expect operational costs per $ revenue to improve and a slight reduction in $ per gram sold at market (due to tighter market conditions in Canada). I doubt much will be said about expanding into the US if federal legislation occurs with the narrative being to improve and streamline their Canadian work and then purse a slow and calculated but strong entry into the US market (but only after federal legalization, which could be 2 years away).

I’m optimistic that we will get more information on their lending business and depending on how much money is deployed that work could produce another $5-10 million a quarter in revenue.

Finally I expect them to elaborate on the benefits and synergies of the inner spirit acquisition. The will be optimistic but largely on a subjective rather than objective level.

This will probably be reported as a significant net loss in large part due to investments in growth opportunities (vertical integration and diversification, which is kind of odd to see together because they appear contradictory, however I see it working in this case). The result is large and significant net loss with all the indicators pointing at growth and a bright long term future.

The net loss will probably be enough to send it red which is a great buying opportunity for the share price reversal that will happen at the much rosier looking Q3 & Q4 reports and calls. Target a Q1 2022 market cap of 2 to 2.2 billion.

Also, they might hint at a reverse split to stay listed (but I doubt this will come up).

Ok that’s my uneducated layman’s prediction. If you trade based on this you are a truly retarded ape.

Let’s hear your thoughts I’d love to understand other sentiment around this one.

What do you think?

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  1. I’m buying more this week, I think earnings will surprise a lot of ppl. They have put in over 0.5billion into sunstream if they get only 5% interest from it then they have 25mil + other investments…. they’re also said they will lunch new product in Q3 so I’m instrested to hear about it. I wouldn’t expect big income from IS as yet but Q3&Q4 could be a breaker for SNDL. What’s most important weed is getting towards legalisation and this can’t be stopped. This is a long-term play and I buy & hold.

  2. Not sure if you seen it lads

    Greenrose Acquisition Corp. Enters Agreements for Up to $103 Million in Additional Capital


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