in

So, I’ve achieved my SFM goal, it is 2x of what I originally envisaged owning and it cost me an average of 0.0000036 per token. How do I see this playing out from here…

I started buying in mid June at 0.0000047 levels and have bought 15 dips since then with my last 25% coming in under 0.0000028 for an average of 0.0000036 post the 10% tax. Going forward the SFM volume flywheel will depend on the below:

1. Use cases – Wallets, Exchange, Blockchain, NFTs/Gaming, Phoenix etc.
2. Access – each of the the above use cases will help SFM mainstream and be widely accepted across exchanges in due course and help draw in new holders

While the above micro issues are in the Devs control and they seem to be on top of them, the below macro scenarios will effect the development of SFM in the medium term of 3-4 years (NFA):

Scenario 1 – Most Bitcoin pundits believe that BTC hasn’t achieved its market cycle peak in the run up in April and will bounce back to 100-150k levels in 5-6 months. Even if this were to happen, the price would crash almost immediately and will start a long crypto winter which usually lasts 2-3 years. In this case SFM will also get its bump, but will also crash along with BTC and settle into the winter. Not an ideal scenario.

Scenario 2 – We are already in a crypto winter and BTC will continue to remain in an accumulation phase for the next 2-3 years. This is the best case scenario for SFM because it will help them execute all the above mentioned projects and move out of meme coin territory. Moreover the burn would help the circulating supply come down to 100T and even with a low market cap at 10Bn, the price would have to rise to 0.0001. More importantly reflections – every bag would have grown by at least 50% at these levels. Imagine a case when the next bull run begins at this time (they usually last 800 days on an average)…, all bets then would be off on SFM price and shaving off an additional ‘0’ from here could be a real possibility. So the golden period for SFM in my estimate will be between 2024-2026.

Scenario 3 – Impending stock market crash will also affect crypto and could drag prices down by another 25%. In this case, I still have dry powder left and will look to add more SFM and reach 3x of my original goal. And then wait for the winter to play out and hope Scenario 2 characteristics will kick in.

Of course this is all crystal ball gazing and nothing can go to plan because this is cryptocurrency territory. So, always buy only what you can afford to lose and if you have bought enough then they deserve a HODL ; )

What do you think?

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8 Comments

  1. If the Safemoon roadmap pans out perfectly and everyone switches over to the Safemoon wallet and exchange, we MIGHT see Safemoon breakaway from the rest of the market and become one of the main coins regardless of the market direction. Never say never, nothing is impossible, stranger things have happened.

  2. Probably closer to over double the size of your bag to burn down to 100T (2.14x) and the number I have for 25T (what I guess the burn will stop at) is actually a 2.32 multiplier, it’s this which makes me confident that the current size of my holdings will end up in the 5-10 billion token range where the reflections math starts looking really, really good.

  3. I like this post and it’s realistic assessment. Like you, I’m looking at a 3-5 year horizon. Difference is, I am not at my goal yet (congrats). I bought fairly early, and have a decent sized bag, but with all the announcements lately I have got a fever, and the only prescription is more Safemoon.

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