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Tomorrow, 7/2/2021, TSA airline travelers will surpass 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began ✈️📈

**…and it will be a market-moving event for the entire airline industry.**

TSA releases checkpoint travel numbers every day at 9am [here](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). We’re at the cusp of eclipsing 2019 throughput and tomorrow will put us over the edge for two reasons:

1. The trend is steady – traveler throughput has been rising ~3.8% week over week (WoW). Weekend and Friday travel has been recovering at a faster ~4.1% WoW rate.
2. 7/2/2019 was a bit of anomaly – far lower that expected – so tomorrow’s throughput can actually *drop* by 2.1% (I’d give that a 5% chance, at most) WoW and *still* beat 2019.

So, if you have faith in the 24-hour news cycle picking up this event and rejoicing, you can expect it to make some green waves when markets open on Tuesday. Load up on discounted travel recovery stocks.

For those who can’t read, here’s a pretty chart. The first/smaller circle is 7/2’s eclipse. By 7/25, assuming the trend doesn’t suddenly reverse course, this will become a regular occurrence.

https://preview.redd.it/b196uztslm871.png?width=1780&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2a903dc69899c03bce319ce82efd0012c1934a4

Positions:

* SAVE 7/16 $35C
* SAVE 8/20 $35C
* SABR 7/16 $13C
* SABR 1/21 $18C
* 4K SAVE shares
* 10K SABR shares

EDIT [7/2]: At least one half of the theory is correct – travelers set a new record. Now it’s up to the media. We shall see 🚀

What do you think?

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15 Comments

  1. SABR options are dirt cheap, loaded the truck on $2023 $12C. Breakevens at 15 which the stock already surpassed earlier this year before reopening even began. Tons of upside after a recent selloff, MS downgraded price target by 5% when SABR revised guidance up by 20%. Stock fell over 10%.

    Another place to look is COTY, as more people travel, women will need makeup that has expired. Plenty of runway left and options are cheap here too.

  2. I know there is a chart and stuff, but I can’t believe this is true . I travel all the time and no doubt there is alot more people traveling. But the airlines still have half the planes grounded and half the routes active. The airports are busier and almost back to normal but my perception is that we are still 25% short of same time precovid.

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